Who wins the World Cup?

Monte Carlo forecast: every remaining match is simulated thousands of times with a Poisson goal model. Team strengths start from FIFA-ranking priors, then update with every real result entered on the schedule page — so the forecast sharpens after each matchday.

Pick your bracket

Two steps: tap any "?" slot to choose who you think reaches the round of 32 (only teams from that slot's groups are offered), then tap flags to advance teams all the way to a champion. Everything saves on this device. Real teams and results fill in automatically once the knockouts arrive, and real data always beats a pick. Reset my picks

How the model works

Goals follow independent Poisson distributions, with expected goals scaling exponentially in the rating gap and a host bump when a team plays in its own country. Ratings move Elo-style after every observed result. Group tiebreakers, the round-of-32 third-place slot constraints, and the full knockout graph are read directly from the official fixture structure. It's a forecast, not a promise — the whole point of a 5% chance is that it comes in one tournament out of twenty.